By: Scott Barkett
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| When life give you lemons, you draft European players |
A Tale of Two Scenarios
As a near constant stream of overly dramatic music blares from my laptop speakers, my roommate calls out from the other room, “Who are you watching now?” I have poured through every DraftExpress YouTube video possible, and with the draft lottery days away, my anxiety as a Cleveland Cavaliers fan is skyrocketing.
DX’s Mike Schmitz does an amazing job of putting highlight videos together. For those unfamiliar, each video begins by highlighting all of the strengths a player has, before finishing with the weaknesses. And so, as another highlight tape rolls on my computer screen—backed by a soundtrack fit for Gladiator, of course—my excitement is inevitably decimated once the second half of the video trains the halogen beams on the flaws.
This is not Schmitz’ fault, though. He has to tell it like it is, and this is a draft that teases and intrigues more than it comforts and excites. Still, I cannot help but feel as if my praise for Schmitz’ work comes more from Stockholm syndrome than it does from pure enjoyment.
Wow, this guy really can attack the bucket! Man, look at that pick and roll defense! That jumper is silky smooth! Oh, he got arrested? I wonder what it wa—Oh, dude, he clubbed baby seals? Wait, he’s actually 26? And he’s actually 4’10” in socks? Schmiiiiiiitzzzz!!!
This is a draft only Presti, Morey, or Buford could love. Most other fan bases will be stuck listening to their respective suits spin the Shabazz Muhammad’s and Anthony Bennett’s of the world into something to get excited about. Except for a select few players, most of these prospects are either high risk-high reward projects, talented but undersized players, or NBA ready bodies with low ceilings.
For a Cavaliers team in desperate need a big time wing player and a rim protector down low, a weak draft is bad news bears. If the Cavs’ 2013-2014 playoff chances hinge on improving their anemic defense under Mike Brown, then at a certain point size and athleticism has to matter. We know that Mike Brown is a master at overcoming mediocre talent simply through a distinct size advantage in his defensive schemes. The Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, LeBron James, Andy Varejao, Zydrunas Ilgauskas lineup from the ’07 NBA Finals run was nobody’s idea of the ’97 Bulls, but possessed a staggering height advantage that suffocated Eastern Conference offenses.
For this reason, the 6’8” Otto Porter has been nearly unanimously slotted to the Cavs, assuming they pick around the number three slot. Otto is the only legitimately sized small forward currently pegged in the top-10, and he conveniently possesses a skill set that should complement the Cavs’ current young core. I love that the main knock on Porter is that he was hesitant at times to dominate Georgetown's shot chart. That might be problematic for another lottery team in need of an alpha dog scorer, but the Cavs are in good shape on that front with Kyrie and Dion. What Porter does excel at—defense, passing, rebounding, and finishing in the paint—are all traits that would make him Mike Brown’s new best friend in the Cavs’ starting five.
Of course, if the Cavs win the lottery (a substantially less likely scenario than picking 2-6 and targeting Porter, but a legitimate possibility nonetheless), then Nerlens Noel is their likely first pick. That is certainly a great fit, too. Noel is really skinny for a big man, but he’s got great length and athleticism and should be able to get much stronger even if he never transforms his body like Dwight Howard did. You could definitely do a lot worse than giving Mike Brown an exceptionally athletic defensive anchor for the next decade. In short, Noel—similar to Porter— brings a size and athleticism dimension to the Cavs defense that has been missing for the past few seasons.
What I do like about this draft, assuming the Cavs are able to get Noel or Porter with their first pick, is the way that they should be able to find an intriguing compliment to either with their 19th pick. If the Cavs are able to take Otto Porter, then a hyper-athletic big man such as Gorgui Dieng would be an obvious choice at 19 (or higher, if Grant needs to use his high second round picks as leverage). Likewise, if they snag Noel, then a swingman such as Sergey Karasev, Glen Rice, Jr. or Dario Saric should be legitimate targets for Grant.
When Life Gives You Lemons...
But, what if the ping pong balls are unkind and the Cavs pick slides all the way to number six? If Nerlens Noel and Otto Porter are off the board, I honestly have no clue what move Chris Grant will make. It is not a decision tree that is very attractive, at least from a conventional team-building standpoint. Grant would either be forced to take a two guard and deal with the Dion Waiters related ramifications, or go with a big man such as Alex Len who is skilled but may not be great value so high in a draft filled with competent, if not spectacular big men.
Uncertainty with the Cavs top pick will only further complicate their strategy with the 19th pick. Let us say, for example, that the Cavs land at six and take Alex Len. Then, with the 19th pick they have the opportunity to take Gorgui Dieng, whose style of play fits Mike Brown’s perfectly. Do you pass on the fit at 19 because of what you did with your previous pick? That’s the kind of cause and effect that should keep GM’s up at night in the days before a weak draft.
So, how to attack this hypothetical scenario where Porter and Noel are off the board? If the basketball gods jai alai serve those kind of lemons in his direction, I personally would love to see Chris Grant put a little “f*** it” in his system and swing for the athletically-unique fences.
I call this plan the Chris Grant Lemonade Stand Deluxe Combo Special™.
Go ahead and take either 7’1” Alex Len from Maryland/Ukraine, or 7’1” Rudy Gobert from France. Gobert in particular has absolutely absurd length, with a 7’8.5” wingspan (!!) and a 9’7” standing reach (!!!!!!!!). There is a lot to like about both of these prospects, though there is also tons to pick apart. But, let’s let my master plan take shape before we freak out about the negatives.
Okay, so we just added a legitimate seven footer with great length and shot blocking talent in either Len or Gobert. With that 19th pick, the Cavs might be able to snag the 6’10” small forward, Dario Saric from Croatia. He brings some of the same court vision and offensive feel to the game that Porter does, though he’s much more raw on the defensive end and will have to navigate the culture shock of a new country, too. Or, perhaps the Cavs could go after 6’7” Russian, Sergey Karasev. While his height is average for a small forward, he is the son of a coach and possesses a deadly jumper. Size-wise, I prefer to think of him in a Sasha Pavlovic role under Mike Brown, where he can be a big two or an average three, depending on the lineup.
While either pick would be nice, exiting the first round with Len/Gobert and Saric/Karasev is pretty risky and not far enough from conventional wisdom for my tastes. So, I would love to see Chris Grant double down in this scenario and go for broke. Dangle those two second round picks (31st and 33rd overall) in exchange for another mid-first rounder. Come out of the first round with both Saric and Karasev to compliment your top pick! Will all three players pan out? Probably not, but Grant would increase his odds of finding that Euro gem by simply taking all of the Euros.
Is this strategy crazy? It might be, but let me toss some potential lineups at you:
- Irving, Karasev, Saric, Varejao, Gobert.
- Irving, Waiters, Saric, Varejao, Gobert
- Irving, Waiters, Karasev, Saric, Gobert
See what I am getting at? The height at athleticism Mike Brown could throw around would be impressive, even if the trio of Euros don’t all turn into great players. Basically, I am arguing that Chris Grant could try to make up for what this draft lacks in polished talent by pursuing prospects that bring something unique—in this case length—to the table.
For my money, that has to be a better option than Shabazz Muhammad in wine and gold, right?
I would be absolutely thrilled if the basketball gods should deem the Cleveland Cavaliers worthy of Nerlens Noel or Otto Porter. It would be hard to argue with a Chris Grant draft with either of those guys as a cornerstone. But, if the gods smite our ping pong balls, then I would absolutely love to see Chris Grant get highly creative and at least add some unique traits to this mind-numbingly traditional Cavaliers roster.
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