Don't Believe Me, Just Watch: Milwaukee Bucks

Fear the Deer??

Are the Milwaukee Bucks a legit contender?

Logan’s answer: Hell No

Milwaukee has their spot in the Eastern conference playoffs practically secured, but this isn’t due to their phenomenal play but more of a result of the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee’s record sits at 34 and 35, while 9th place Philadelphia rests at 26-42, a whopping 16 games below 500. That being said once Milwaukee makes the playoffs, everybody’s slate is swept clean and what you did in the regular season is largely forgotten and behind you. Sadly (at least for the Bucks), with the eight seed comes playing the top seed in the East, the Miami Heat.

It’s not really about what the Bucks will do wrong to not have a deep playoff run (or any significant playoff impact at all), it’s what the Heat will do so right. The Bucks won’t be able to slow down the onslaught that is the Heat’s offense. Though they have the defensive beast Larry Sanders, he can’t guard everyone. Milwaukee’s defense ranks 20th in the league per ESPN. Historically, a team out of the top 10 in defense struggles collecting wins when playoff intensity takes hold and especially against a team like the Heat which ranks 5th in the league in scoring offense.

Milwaukee has great length in their backcourt and good defenders in not only Sanders but also in Dalembert, Udoh and Mbah a Moute, but their frontcourt defense is atrocious. With Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings giving up so many open looks and drives to the basket it is a testament to how good their frontcourt defense is that they aren’t ranked worse. These two see the majority of the minutes in the backcourt averaging almost 38 minutes apiece. Ellis and Jennings are superior athletes who have the ability to score at an elite level but defensively they are pitiful. Both are prone to take risks and make poor attempts for the ball that leave them out of position leading to mismatches and 2-on-1 situations. Against the Heat and their elite backcourt, these mistakes will prove far too costly as mismatches and penetration lead to big throw-downs or corner threes.


With their woes on defense it means Milwaukee will have to rely on their offense to beat the Heat, which you would think would be a good thing considering they have relied on offense to carry their team all season. They rank 12th in total offense and are largely carried by the play of their two dynamic guards. Ellis leads the team in scoring averaging 19.4 points per game, with Jennings right behind at 18.1 points per game.

Yet, both are shooting a very low percentage with Ellis at .418 and Jennings at an abysmal .399. These are awful shooting percentages…. for anyone in the league, but because of their potential to explode in any one game they are still threats on any giving night. The problem is that the Heat is full of elite defenders who will be able to make this possibility more remote then it already is. With Wade, Battier, and LeBron harassing them on the perimeter, Ellis and Jennings will still shoot just as much as always…only now, they really won’t have a chance to go in. So even though they typically would probably suck they are almost guaranteed to suck against the Heat.

It is widely believed that maybe the only way to beat the Heat is to slow the game down and attack them from inside with elite post players. Milwaukee’s bigs are athletic and talented defensively but the only one able to carry a team offensively (or even create his own shot) is Ersan Ilyasova. Ilyasova had a breakout year last year as power forward for Milwaukee but had a frustrating start this year, as he got benched to start the season and saw his minutes slashed.

However, since the firing of Scott Skiles, Ilyasova has regained his position on the roster and is starting to play like the Ersan of old. The problem with the Ersan of old is that he is far too comfortable with not being the first option and is willing to let Ellis and Jennings run the show (which means missed shots and poor possessions). He also likes to spend time outside of the paint launching mid-range jumpers and open threes. This is where the Heat want him, where he won’t be able to exploit the Heat’s lack of a post-presence. Long story short, Milwaukee has no shot against the Heat and really no shot at all of doing any kind of damage in the playoffs.

Scott’s answer: Yes? 

Okay, forget everything I wrote in the last post about the Denver Nuggets.

I'm joking of course, because what I write are facts and one does not simply forget facts. But let's begin this portion of the debate by conceding a point. The Milwaukee Bucks are not legendary. Heck, their maximum ceiling might not even be great. Every shred of credible evidence points to them being another 8th see that will get swept out of the playoffs and into the Basketball-Reference.com abyss.

Here's the deal, though. Milwaukee is within two games of seven seed Boston as I write this. If Milwaukee stays in the 8th seed and faces the Heat in round one, then this whole discussion is pointless. The Heat will be operating with a scorched earth policy this spring, and the Bucks will serve nicely as some kindling to begin the festivities. General Sherman would be proud of such a scene.

But if the Bucks should overtake the Celtics for the seventh seed, then all bets are off. A round one match-up with the Indiana Pacers would be a tall task, yes. Legitimate questions, though: Do you trust the Pacers in the playoffs? Is it so unthinkable for Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings to get hot at the right time? Can we completely discount the unreal defensive impact that Larry Sanders has had for Milwaukee?

At their best (Spoiler Alert: the Bucks are rarely at their best), I think the Bucks have a dangerous roster. After spending most of the season shooting at or below 40%, Monta Ellis has been around 50% fg/40% 3pt/80% ft in the month of March. At those percentages, Monta Ellis is elite.

We all remember what happened when the Baron Davis' career roller coaster briefly peaked at the elite level in the 2007 playoffs, right? Allow me to remind you...

#YouTubeDunkBreak

And that was after knocking out the #1 seed Mavericks in the first round! Monta could do the same for the Bucks, in my opinion. He's that good, which is why it's unfortunate that you always have to throw in a qualifier. If only Monta were consistent, we'd be talking about a perennial NBA All-Star.

The problem with Milwaukee is that their star players are notoriously streaky and unreliable. General Manager John Hammond has built a squad that is impossible to bet on or against. Monta and Brandon could go off and shock the world, or they could go down with a whimper. We won't know until we know.

I do have a confession to make before I go on living life as if I never argued for the Bucks' playoff chances. I'm a closet Monta Ellis fan. I know, I know...it's so uncool to be a fan of an inefficient gunslinger in these post-Sloan Sports Analytics Conference times. Hell, I take great pride in taking shot's at Rudy Gay's shot selection and Monta Ellis is very similar in this regard. Judge me all you want, as I probably deserve it. But if the Bucks are shocking the world in round one, just remember that I told you this was vaguely plausible if every domino fell correctly and Monta Ellis got hot.

Was that last sentence gutsy-pundit-who's-really-hedging enough for you? Or should I write it in all caps next time?

NBA Rule #456: Do not believe Monta Ellis. Do watch him, though.