Don't Believe Me, Just Watch: Denver Nuggets

Do not believe this man. Observe him.

So for the legions of you who caught Episode 5 of The Bottom Up podcast, you heard us introduce a new, nameless segment. Basically, we're going through each playoff team and debating whether or not they are legit contenders. We decided to take this cage match to the blog, because that's the kind of whimsical power we wield in The Bottom Up kingdom.

Are the Denver Nuggets a legit contender?

Logan’s answer: Yes

The past few years Denver has been labeled in the postseason as being that team you don’t want to meet in the first round but doesn't have a legitimate shot of going deep into the playoffs. That has changed this year as Denver has emerged as one of the elite teams in the Western Conference. Currently, Denver is in the middle of a fierce battle for the number three spot in the playoffs with the Memphis Grizzles and the Los Angeles Clippers. Denver currently holds the spot and looks poised to maintain it, as they have been playing phenomenal basketball of late and are in the midst of a 15 game winning streak. This spot could be crucial in long-term playoff success as whoever falls in the fourth or fifth spot will be in a real battle with one another to make it to the next round compared to playing the sliding Warriors or the inexperienced Rockets. But regardless of how the regular season ends or how the playoff seeding shakes out, the Nuggets are a team capable of going deep in the playoffs.


Statistically Denver is impressive, ranking in the top three in assists, rebounds, and points-per-game. The most impressive thing about this team to me, however, is their depth and everyone’s willingness to do what ever needs to be done in order to win. The Nuggets, on any giving night, will play 12 or more guys in a game and yet the drop off in play will be minimal. Offensively, this depth is on full display with six players on the team averaging over ten points a game and two more over nine. Though they are known for their fast-break offense they also are effective in the half court. Over their current winning streak, Denver has been scoring at nearly a top five rate in their half court sets. This will be crucial in the playoffs as many teams will slow down the pace and turn up the defensive intensity, making every possession vital even in the half court.

Defensively, the depth of the Nuggets will again give them an advantage. With a wide range of players who posses great length, athleticism and size they can easily guard any multitude of lineups and be fresh as daisy’s doing it. They have an elite defender in Andre Iguodala and the ball hawking annoyance that is Corey Brewer, so if they need to lockdown their defense the stretch of a game they have the tools necessary to do it. Not to mention the blocking/goaltending beast that is Javale McGee, who can turn a game to your advantage in a moments notice (or do the exact opposite).

Lastly, Ty Lawson has emerged as a true superstar in this league. He is shooting over 50% from the field in his last 10 games, decimating defenses by hitting his open jumpers and slashing into the paint if you close out too hard on him. With the added offense of Wilson Chandler helping spread the floor even more, Lawson has been able to get even better looks and score when points start to get hard to come by. The Nuggets statistically are one of the most effective teams in clutch moments according to Zach Lowe on Grantland. Denver ranks fifth in points per possession this season when the margin is five points or less and the scoring margin is only five points or less. This fact added with Ty Lawson’s new comfort level scoring the basket makes Denver a scary team that can outperform anyone in the waning minutes of a close game. The Nuggets are a loaded team that with their great depth and elite offensive play makes them easily a favorite in this years playoffs.

Scott's Answer: No

In "Forever," a song so good it compelled Eminem to sober up for the remix and LeBron to make the most awkward rap video cameo ever, Canadian poet Drake asserted in the hook:

It may not mean nothing to y'all,

But understand nothing was done for me,

So I don't plan on stopping at all,

I want this shit forever, man...

Pulling from personal experience to describe the internal fire that motivates him, Drake sets the table for an epic tale of triumph over the incredible odds the cosmos had thrown at him. Yet, it is the second half of Drake's hook which is of greater interest to me, Logan, and the 2013 Denver Nuggets:

I'm shutting shit down at the mall,

And telling every girl she the one for me,

But I ain't even planning to call,

I want this shit forever, man...

Wut?

We went from an introspective hero's tale to an anecdote about being a jerk to women in shopping plazas. But, here's the thing...both halves of the chorus are epic. It's not as if the song loses steam once Drake brings the focus down from everlasting greatness to everlasting paternity suits. It's a hilariously inconsistent chorus but it speaks to the line between legendary and great. Both are satisfying in a similar way right now, but under closer scrutiny and higher stakes legendary separates itself from much more common greatness.

This difference between legendary and great is very important when considering the curious case of the 2013 Denver Nuggets. Here, we have a team devoid of a universally accepted superstar attempting to win a championship in a league where superstars carry teams. Around the NBA, Hoosiers is remembered as a story about a shit team that only won once it lured local superstar Jimmy Chitwood out of exile.

So, while the Denver Nuggets have won 15 straight regular season games you'll have to excuse me if I just don't buy the hype. You can throw all kinds of advanced metrics at me about their regular season effectiveness, but it truly matters that no team devoid of a universally accepted superstar has won a title since the 2004 Detroit Pistons. In fact in Michael Jordan's modern NBA that's the extent of the examples. That's literally all I've got for you. Suffice it to say, the Nuggets would be an amazing story if the won the title this year. And let's be clear--this isn't your slightly older cousin's 2004 NBA. There's superteams out there in those woods, and they aren't imploding internally like those '04 Lakers.

But, what about the conference? After all, each season generally has a few legit contenders despite the league only crowning one champion. Once again, I'm just not seeing how this Nuggets team is built for playoff success despite their regular season excellence. This is a fast break team that only recently has improved beyond average in their half-court sets. We all saw Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns struggle to succeed in the playoffs after electric regular seasons because when the pace slows down in the playoffs, it's the fast break teams that must adjust the most. I don't think Denver has the experience or the talent to make this adjustment successfully enough that they transition their regular season success to the playoffs.

And so, let us consider the 2013 Denver Nuggets to be the second half of Drake's "Forever" hook. They're epic, they're fun, they go against the grain, and they're guaranteed to get the party started. But, let's not forget the difference between great and legendary. The difference between notoriety now and remembrance forever. NBA history is littered with great teams that won a bunch of regular season games, but it is a select few that were built for playoff contention. These true, legit contenders generally follow a blueprint involving 2-3 elite superstars.

Keep checking the phone, Denver, but I promise you nobody's planning to call this June.

"Logan just called and said Ty Lawson is a true superstar in this league!"